i circulation soars – but what happens when they pull the plug on Jemima?

February 11, 2011

Sales of “Britain’s concise quality newspaper” – otherwise known as the 20p i – are doing far better than expected.

After a bumpy start to its career, the pocket-size Independent has received a confidence-boosting fillip to its circulation, thanks in part to a TV advertising campaign starring – among others – Jemima Khan.

Confidence enough, at least, for the management team to disclose its first Audit Bureau of Circulations figures a month before the competition had anticipated.

The headline figure for January (that means the total including bulk and freebie copies) was 133, 472, of which a healthy 125,702 copies were actually paid for.

These figures are interesting for at least two reasons. First, as my colleague at Marketing Week, Lara O’Reilly, has pointed out, if you add the gross Lite figures and the gross Standard Issue figures together, you get 318,507 – which puts the Independent comfortably ahead of our only other liberal newspaper, The Guardian.

Second, and more commercially important, the first ABC figures mark a watershed in the Independent’s relationship with the media buying fraternity. According to sources close to the competition, the Independent sales team has a deal going with the agencies that once the combined “offer” reaches paid-for sales of 340,000 a day, the ads thus far appearing in i will actually have to be paid for, and that the ratecard will approximately double.

Whatever the fine-print truth, it’s a commercial turning-point that is now hoving into view. The eagle-eyed among you will have noted that the present combined figure is still a good way short of that 340,000 goal. It’s even lower when considering the paid-for figures. The Independent itself is heavily bulked, and the combined paid-for figure would be a mere 214,126. But the ABC figures represent an average, an average that disguises the momentum of i sales. By the beginning of this month, with the TV campaign still running, i’s daily circulation had soared to 160,000 – according to the publisher. This week, distribution of i will extend to the further reaches of the British Isles. The Independent’s management must be hoping that growth will be given an extra spurt, bringing the combined paid-for figures close to that moment of commercial truth.

Ah, but that’s February’s figures. What about March’s, when the TV campaign life-support system will have been switched off? A good question, and one that Andy Mullins, managing director of the Independent and i, will no doubt be pondering. One further thing, though: these January figures do demonstrate a milestone has been passed. Many of us outside Lebedev Towers predicted i would merely cannibalise sales of the Independent. That prediction has not come to pass. Sales of the Independent, although chronically low, have not been significantly eroded.

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Alexander Lebedev’s i-opener

October 19, 2010

Say what you like about Russian oligarch Alexander Lebedev’s approach to newspaper economics, you have to admit that he leaves no publishing model unturned. And knows how to spring a surprise.

With dizzying speed, he has acquired control of The Evening Standard, doubled its guaranteed circulation and turned it into a freesheet – just when everyone else was getting out of afternoon freesheet London newspapers. Then gone on to buy the ailing Independent for £1 while pocketing a £9.5m sweetener. And now he’s hatched i – billed (admittedly by himself) as the first innovation in quality newspapers for 25 years.

i? It’s a minuscule version of the Independent – a bit like The Week: but cheaper, at only 20p, and also daily, from Monday to Friday. There’s no new content apart from “some small unique stuff around the edges”, according to PaidContent. Which will obviously be one factor in keeping costs down; another being that it will be overseen by Simon Kelner, already editor-in-chief of the Independent and Independent on Sunday. On the other hand, keeping costs down is not really what it’s about. A circulation of 400,000 has been suggested; and given that it is a paid-for title, distribution overheads are unlikely to be negligible. We’re also told that a substantial outdoor campaign, devised by Beattie McGuinness Bungay, will back the launch.

So this is no trifling brand extension of the Independent. But what exactly is it? Andy Mullins, managing director of the Independent, tells us “it’s for time-poor newspaper readers, and especially commuters” who “just don’t have the time to read a quality newspaper on a regular basis.” The key words here are “commuter” and “quality”. In other words, Lebedev appears to be bidding for the young, upmarket audience abandoned by London Lite and The London Paper with an offering that does not insult their intelligence.

But do we really need another title targeted at upmarket Londoners? After all, most of the Independent’s readership is concentrated within the M25 area, of which London comprises by far the biggest portion. And, as if this were not enough, surely the free Standard is serving some of those commuter needs?

All right, points can be made in favour of further market segmentation. i will be available in the morning, whereas the Standard is an afternoon read; moreover it purports to be aimed at a slightly higher demographic. But even after making these allowances, cannibalisation of Lebedev’s existing readers seems likely to be the inexorable by-product of his latest launch. Why risk it in the first place?

One theory is that it will provide camouflage for a routed Independent, whose fully-paid circulation has already plunged below 100,000 in the UK and Ireland. Another is that we should take Lebedev at his word: he really does have a passion for newspaper publishing that far outweighs concerns about its immediate commercial viability.

It’s easily forgotten just how unlike any other UK newspaper publisher Lebedev is. It’s not so much his wealth – though that’s substantial enough at an estimated $2bn – as where it comes from that sets him apart. Essentially he’s a financier and industrialist (indirect interests include Gazprom and the aircraft-leasing company Ilyushin Finans) who aspires to be a politician in a way that only a Russian could be. In 2008, for example, he set up the Independent Democratic Party of Russia with former Soviet Union supremo Mikhail Gorbachev (who co-owns Lebedev’s liberal Russian newspaper, Novaya Gazeta). The following year he attempted to run for mayor at Sochi, which will host the 2014 Winter Olympics, but was disbarred. Underlying it all is a tough blend of Yeltsin-era oligarch (one of the few who hasn’t been incarcerated, dispossessed or sent into permanent exile, that is) and Putin-era silovik (ex-KGB officers, who are effectively Russia’s governing class). In other words, Lebedev is a pragmatic survivor who takes the long view.

All of which puts his newspaper interests in little old England into perspective. It would be wrong to define them as a hobby; perhaps they should be seen more as a bolt hole if things go horribly and definitively wrong back home. In the process of building it, let’s hope he’ll discover how to make money out of the contemporary newspaper.


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