A successor to Maurice Lévy as head of Publicis Groupe? Yes, but no, but maybe

July 24, 2012

These days, we’ve come to see Maurice Lévy, chairman and chief executive of Publicis Groupe, as something of an oracle. Every time the 70-year-old eminence grise makes one of his ceremonial public appearances – ostensibly to observe the religious rites of the financial year – we strain our ears for words of greater meaning, expertly hidden between the monotonous reporting lines.

This year’s halfway performance was no disappointment. In themselves, the figures were not terribly exciting. Organic growth of 2.8% and a 19% uplift in income were a perfectly respectable outcome, given that the Eurozone economy has developed blackspot and Publicis had lost the General Motors account. Clearly the BRICs and MISSATs (as we must now refer to Mexico, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa and Turkey) must be doing rather well to make up the averages. And – hidden gem – Britain seems to be uncharacteristically up among them – for now at any rate – since it posted a 4.1% increase in growth.

But all this numerical incantation was historical stuff, and not what we actually wanted to hear.

What was M. Lévy’s outlook for the global advertising economy? The downward trend between the first and second quarters would halt. Much higher growth could be expected in the third quarter, starting right now. Phew!

And what of Dentsu’s acquisition of Aegis Group, what did he think of that? “The price is extremely full,” he opined in true oracular fashion. “It’s a nice acquisition for Dentsu.” But not for anyone else, we were led to believe. Not at least for anyone with a head for figures. And certainly not for Publicis Groupe, which had done something infinitely more sensible with a full buyout of BBH.

And the Publicis Groupe succession (which is all we really wanted to hear about) – any progress on that? Here M. Lévy outdid himself in Delphic obscurity and double meaning. Yes, a successor to himself would emerge. In September. Or was that just the beginning of the process? It rather looked like it: “In September the board will start the process.” Hold on a minute, hadn’t this “process” been going on for several years now? Why did it need to “begin” in September?

But, a successor would be found, wouldn’t he? Think of those poor clients and investors waiting anxiously for reassurance.

Yes, M. Lévy had his preferred private candidate, but he wasn’t going to disclose their identity to anyone else. That was a matter for the board.

So, we’ll take that as full confidence in Jean-Yves Naouri, PG’s chief operating officer  and Publicis Worldwide CEO whose name Lévy had let slip during an earlier ritual occasion? Well, possibly. Unless that successor were to be Arthur Sadoun, managing director of Publicis Worldwide. Or maybe Simon Badinter, son of its most important shareholder, Elisabeth Badinter – without whose approval no Lévy successor can be anointed.

But we could be clear on one thing, couldn’t we – M. Lévy himself would be vacating his See? Ah! Well, yes and no: “The first and most important thing is the depth and breadth of the teams at Publicis is such that my presence is almost non-important. I think it’s very important that there’s a succession plan and I’m doing everything I can, with a fantastic team, to make sure that no one who entrusts us with their confidence will be disappointed – our clients, our people, our investors,” he said with studied contradiction. Someone “almost non-important” needs a successor, eh?

Let’s get this straight then. A candidate does exist. It’s Jean-Yves Naouri, who has been working like a Stakhanovite to prove his mettle. But doubts remain about his suitability. Is La Badinter any more enthusiastic about “the approved candidate” than when his name first emerged over two years ago? Probably not, but she’s going to have to face up to reality soon, because there’s no obvious alternative to Naouri in the wings. Unless, of course, we’ve been barking up the wrong tree here. Perhaps there won’t be a single successor. Maybe Naouri will be installed with a junior partner at his side – conceivably the more charismatic Sadoun. And just to be absolutely certain the glue sticks, Maurice Lévy won’t be leaving any time soon. He won’t be président directeur-général any longer, of course. Just life president. After all, the one thing he did unambiguously tell us was: “It’s my life and I don’t intend to simply leave the company. Whatever happens to me I will always support Publicis and help Publicis as long as Publicis will need me; in whatever capacity Publicis will need me. And that is clear.”

Yes, for once, it is.

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Jam tomorrow, but never today, as Maurice Lévy contemplates final bonus of €16m

March 28, 2012

Readers of this blog will recall that Publicis Groupe supremo Maurice Lévy’s €900,000 “salary sacrifice” isn’t quite as altruistic as it appears (although, all credit for some skilful self-publicity on his part).

Among the emoluments he won’t be foregoing is a one-off “deferred compensation payment”, which crystallises when he (supposedly) retires at the end of this year.

Thus far, the exact amount has been shrouded in mystery. It was with great interest, therefore, that I read the following extract in The Economic Times:

PARIS: Publicis boss Maurice Levy is set to collect 16.2 million euros ($21.6 million) in deferred pay this year after the advertising agency hit some performance targets and based on the length of his service as chief executive, according to a regulatory filing.

“The deferred compensation is due to Maurice Levy because of his commitment to carry out his responsibilities until December 31, 2011,” Publicis said in its annual report. “It was from the beginning a loyalty tool that was not linked to his departure from the group but to his commitment to remain in his post until the end of his fixed contract.”

A loyalty tool, eh? More perhaps what Arthur Daley, of saintly memory, would have called “a nice little earner”.

UPDATE 3/4/12: With a general election only weeks away, Lévy’s €16m terminal bonus has now become ready ammunition in a mudslinging match between the two leading French presidential candidates. Parti Socialiste candidate Philippe Hollande has called the bonus “unacceptable”. Others in the PS have termed it “obscene”.

But Nicolas Sarkozy, incumbent president and candidate of the right-wing UMP, has not pulled his punches either. He rounded on Elisabeth Badinter, Publicis Groupe’s biggest shareholder, as the guilty party (though not by name). “M. Hollande, it is shareholders who decide on remuneration, and they are your friends,” Sarkozy said in a speech on March 28th, the day after Hollande’s outburst. “The champagne Left, the bohemian-bourgeois Left, has no morality lessons to give us.” Badinter is a friend of Hollande, and has widely-known radical chic leanings. Her husband was a minister under Socialist president Francois Mitterand.

Eventually, Laurent Parisot – head of employers’ association Medef, in which Lévy plays a prominent role – had to come to the embattled adman’s rescue:

 “Publicis, which has [had] exceptional results, is one of the biggest French companies and, most importantly, is a world leader in the advertising business. What isn’t acceptable is high compensation when companies are in trouble.”

An interesting rumour was doing the rounds about a year ago, to the effect that Lévy would seek an ambassadorship after stepping down from PG. Not the kind of controversy he would be wanting if so.


Maurice Lévy bats Naouri’s leadership credentials into the long grass

July 22, 2011

Jean-Yves Naouri has a great future behind him as the next leader of Publicis Groupe. Don’t just take my word for it. Check out Publicis’ H1 earnings call, which group chief Maurice Lévy used as a platform to “deep-six” Naouri’s much-touted candidature into the long grass.

Naouri, it will be recalled, had acquired much of the symbolism of a leader-in-waiting: explicit blessing by Lévy but, more materially, a special executive role to sort out the group’s muddled affairs in China. And, most recently, he has added to this list with his appointment as executive chairman of Publicis Worldwide, the group’s most prestigious network; an event that triggered the resignation of long-serving chief operating officer Richard Pinder.

Lévy is now regretting his earlier enthusiasm. Either that or the all-powerful supervisory board, headed by principal shareholder and daughter-of-the-founder Elisabeth Badinter, has rejected the graft.

At all events, Lévy has made it abundantly clear he is looking at alternatives. According to AdAge, Lévy is spending time with “a few people” without letting them know he is monitoring them (that bit I rather doubt): “I’m training more than one person because I don’t want only one horse in the race. It is my responsibility to give the board many options,” he tells us.

Who might these dark “horses” be? Two candidates come to mind.

The first is Arthur Sadoun. Sadoun, about 40, has been president and chief executive of Publicis France for some time but, in a highly significant move this spring, his role was expanded when he was elevated to managing director of the network – with direct responsibility for operations in Western Europe (meaning Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Holland as well as France).

Sadoun ticks many of the boxes for Publicis leadership. He is a quintessential part of the moneyed, French elite. A graduate of the European Business School and an INSEAD MBA, he is also admirably well connected – not least through his glamorous wife Anne-Sophie Lapix, a leading French television presenter.

That may make him sound like a Naouri clone. Not so. Sadoun is also an accredited entrepreneur and an adman of some flair. After graduating from EBS in his early twenties, he moved to Chile where he set up his own agency – later sold to BBDO. Returning to France in 1997, he joined TBWA\Paris and in 2003 became CEO. Under his management, TBWA\Paris received the Cannes Lions International Advertising Festival ‘Agency of the Year’ Award 4 years in a row. Spookily, he replicated this success with Publicis Conseil – to which he made a sideways move in 2006 – for 3 years running. Say what you like, M. Sadoun is a man who gets things done.

That’s my 7/1 on bet. A darker horse still – say 19/1 – is Simon Badinter. Badinter, 43, comes enormously well pre-packaged as the aforesaid Elisabeth Badinter’s elder son. Badinter mère is married to eminent lawyer and former justice minister now senator Robert. Besides being the company’s heavy-hitting shareholder, she is an intellectual celebrity in her own right. (A point she would no doubt heavily underscore, being one of France’s leading feminists to boot.) Nepotism in a French public company is not the barrier to advancement it might be in Anglo-Saxon economies (the Murdochs being the trying exception to prove that rule). A fact perhaps reflected in Simon Badinter’s long-term presence on Publicis Groupe’s supervisory board, despite his relative youth.

Against him, his hands-on experience is hardly the match of Sadoun’s, or even Naouri’s. He was installed as chairman and chief executive of Medias & Regies Europe – Publicis’ airtime and space sales house – in 2003. But a good deal of his time since has been spent in the USA, to the extent that he was recently made a US citizen. Earlier this year, he handed over his M&R Euro responsibilities to kid brother Benjamin, 40, and took on US duties in their place. To cap this Yankophilia, Simon is an enthusiastic amateur radio star. He recently quit as host of “Simon Rendezvous”, a Sunday night slot broadcast by Chicago-based WGN-AM, to take up a similar role at Boston’s WTKK-FM.

So, Lévy does indeed have “options” other than the colourless Naouri. What he will do with them remains to be seen. He himself seems keen not to outstay his extended welcome: “My board would like me to stay for a full term (ie 4 more years), which is not something I am prepared to do. I prefer for it (the settlement of the succession issue) to happen now.” Well, not now perhaps, but very soon. Lévy, as he has hinted, would like to sort out the vexed issue of the 10% or so of the company still owned by increasingly disconsolate Dentsu. A share buy-back early next year seems on the cards.

Then he can go. If he really wants to.


Naouri’s path to the top at Publicis leaves Pinder stranded

March 31, 2011

This week, a famous media-oriented company, family-built yet globally traded, publicly acknowledged its succession strategy. No, it’s not NewsCorp I’m talking of here (though it certainly fits the description), but Publicis Groupe.

It seems that my tentative question of over a year ago – Will Jean-Yves Naouri be the next ceo of Publicis Groupe? – has been strongly answered in the affirmative.

Little alternative interpretation can be placed on Groupe CEO Maurice Lévy’s statement to the Financial Times that Naouri “is clearly in a leading position for winning the race” to taking over as chief executive when he himself departs in “a few more years.”

As it happens, Publicis insiders have long since been placing their bets on Naouri, albeit with a few reservations about his candidature. Like any leader-in-waiting, Naouri has gradually been acquiring the instruments of power. He’s on the Groupe senior management board, he’s its chief operating officer and, thanks to his reputation as an experienced trouble-shooter, he’s been given “special powers” to shore up Publicis’ strategic weakness (relatively speaking) in China.

However, what marks out his transition from heir presumptive to heir apparent is the decision to install him as executive chairman of Publicis Worldwide. This really is entrusting the heir with the crown jewels. It means putting Naouri very much in the public eye, by letting him run a high-profile creative network.

Not any high-profile creative network, either. It is the Groupe’s flagship – quintessentially Gallic yet global – and very much Lévy’s personal fiefdom.

That is certainly one explanation for why, under first Rick Bendel and then Richard Pinder, it has effectively been run by chief operating officers rather than a formal CEO. In effect, it didn’t need one, since Lévy kept a watchful but fatherly eye on its activities.

Publicis has, of course, been here before. In 2006, Lévy poached Olivier Fleurot, a former FT Group chief executive, as executive chairman of the creative network, at the same time that Pinder was brought in as COO. Then, as now, the honorific appointment gave rise to speculation that Lévy was grooming his successor. However, by Spring 2009 Fleurot had moved off the boil (or at least off the board): to head the holding company’s PR operations, leaving Pinder soldiering on alone at Publicis Worldwide – with effective responsibility for the network, but not full empowerment.

This being so, it is understandable why Pinder should choose to quit now. Being British in a top French company is not quite the barrier to top-flight promotion it might appear at first sight – as David Jones’ recent elevation at Havas Groupe demonstrates. Even so, the odds on Pinder being further promoted – despite his successful 5-year tenure at Publicis Worldwide – seemed remote. In effect, the appointment of Naouri was the coup de grâce to his career advancement. It’s a loss for Publicis, too, because the relentlessly itinerant Pinder gave the network a genuinely cosmopolitan aura.

As far as I can make out, the parting has been amicable enough: Lévy appears to have been keen for Pinder to stay on; and was financially generous when it became apparent he would not. Pinder seems to have a clear idea of what he wants to do next, though what that is I do not know.

Anyway, back to Naouri. Is there any reason to suppose that he may suffer the same fate as Fleurot? Not really. For one thing, time is pressing in a way it was not back in 2006. Lévy is now in “extra time” as group CEO, and shareholders will want a definitive solution sooner rather than later. True, Naouri still has to be anointed by the most important shareholder of them all, Elisabeth Badinter (daughter of Publicis’ founder and the single-biggest stakeholder). But that’s beginning to seem more and more a formality as the alternatives ebb away. The job is now Naouri’s to lose, not someone else’s to win.

The more interesting question is: what will happen to Lévy himself when Naouri is formally given the top job. Will he really retire?

As a candidate, Naouri certainly ticks many boxes. He comes from the right French social and educational background. His relationship with Dominique Strauss-Kahn could be invaluable, should the current managing director of the IMF ever run for president (polls indicate he would beat Nicolas Sarkozy). But charismatic he is not.

The possibility therefore exists that Lévy might be asked to stay on in some capacity. Perhaps as lifetime president.


The Silver Fox proves his cunning

June 2, 2010

Lévy: Last laugh?

That’s it then. Jean-Yves Naouri has been confirmed as Maurice Lévy’s successor as Publicis Groupe chairman and chief executive, and – as predicted – David Kenny, joint head of Publicis’ digital/media buying venture, VivaKi, and a possible contender for the throne, is to step down.

Not exactly. What may really have happened is that Maurice Lévy frightened a refractory board and some dissident shareholders into giving him another, indefinite, term of power. The Silver Fox (or should we call him the French Houdini?), called everyone’s bluff by threatening to retire, but apparently had no intention of doing so. The threat of leaving seems to have concentrated minds around the Unacceptable Alternative: life without Lévy at the top.

It wasn’t a very pretty perspective. Après moi, le déluge, you might say. Publicis Groupe has punched well above its weight in the world arena, but its financial recovery is fragile. Organic growth has been comparatively good, but the digital programme is far from complete and parts of the geographical coverage – China in particular – are relatively weak. Coming up shortly are some complex issues with a strategic shareholder, Dentsu. Dentsu, Japan’s largest advertising group, had owned about 15% of Publicis but has begun reducing its stakeholding. According to some, it plans to get out entirely by 2012.

Is this a situation to entrust to a new and untried chief executive, Lévy might ask rhetorically?  If we omit the possibility of an outsider (hugely disruptive in a family-built business like Publicis) that really leaves the other four members of the executive committee as serious candidates. Jack Klues, chairman of Mediavest Starcom Group, and Kevin Roberts, head of the Saatchi & Saatchi Group, share several disabilities. They’re too old, they’re too attached to “old media” and they’re not French.

Kenny may be American, but he’s considerably younger and represents the cutting-edge of Publicis’ endeavour: he’s Mr Digital incarnate. Against that, it has been known for some time that Kenny will not be coaxed from America to France, a prerequisite for taking the top Publicis job. What’s more, he has been sniffing around a Boston-based private equity company with a view to becoming its chief executive (so far without success).

When he made his statement about stepping down at the end of 2011 (during the first quarter earnings call), Lévy must have known that Kenny was on the way out.

Which brings us to Naouri: French, of course; a technocrat like Lévy himself; and a safe, able pair of hands. But he lacks the charisma to be a shoo-in. Does he have the all-important blessing of the Publicis family, in the form of principal shareholder and supervisory chairwoman Elisabeth Badinter? I leave that as an open question.

Now Kenny has officially admitted he is leaving, Lévy has shortened the odds on Naouri being his successor by enlarging his role (as chief operating officer) and giving him, it appears, special responsibility for sorting out Publicis’ problems in China. But when exactly will he succeed to the hot seat? An awful lot can happen to a candidate’s chances in five years, not all of it good. The question now left hanging over Naouri’s candidacy is this: why wasn’t he good enough to take over by 2012?

Naouri’s weakness, however, is Lévy’s strength. Bien joué, M. Lévy.


Why is Dentsu selling a stake in Publicis Groupe?

May 10, 2010

It’s not only Publicis Groupe chief executive Maurice Levy who appears to be heading for the exit by 2012. Major shareholder Dentsu – one of the world’s largest ad agencies in its own right –  may also be preparing for a strategic withdrawal from the group at about the same time.

That would certainly be one reasonable explanation of why it has just offloaded a large slug of shares.

The shares in question represent nearly 4% of Publicis’s total equity. Pre-sale, Dentsu owned 15% of Publicis, making it the company’s most significant shareholder, on paper. But here’s where politics comes in. Not all Publicis shares are the same: some have double voting rights. Under the old regime, Dentsu theoretically held nearly 17% of voting rights, but placed 2% of these (ie, anything above 15%) in a partnership agreement with Publicis’ other powerful shareholder, Elisabeth Badinter – representing the founding family. This in effect was a double-lock, guaranteeing the family interest – also with 15% voting rights – reigned supreme. On the one hand, two major shareholders, with over 30% voting rights between them, could ward off any predatory interest. On the other, the excess voting shares arrangement meant Badinter had a degree of control over Dentsu should the relationship sour.

So how have things changed? To outward appearances, Dentsu has managed to squeeze €218m out of Publicis at a rather inconvenient time and given back very little in return. Under a prior agreement, it had to offer the 7.5 million shares to Badinter (on a first-refusal basis). There was little choice but to buy and cancel them (unless of course Publicis is looking for another powerful outside stakeholder, which I doubt). And yet Dentsu has hung on to its maximum 15% voting rights, and still retains two members on the Publicis supervisory board.

Is this the first of a series of carefully controlled tranche sales that will eventually result in Dentsu’s exit from the strategic partnership? Quite possibly. It’s easy to see what Publicis has got from the deal over the years (lots of money and a strategic leg-up in the Far East); less so to discern Dentsu’s advantage. For a start, Dentsu management and shareholders must harbour some resentment over the ¥38bn (€320m) writedown on the Publicis stake they had to swallow last year, which helped push the Japanese group into its first loss since 1978. This much is certain: the share sale is another indication that Publicis Groupe is entering an interesting period of flux.


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