Max, Dan, Jerry – 2012′s out-performers

December 14, 2012

League tables of achievement are as commonplace as turkeys right now. Why burden you with another one? Well, I’ve been asked to – by the good folk at More About Advertising. So:

Ad of the Year. Yes, I liked BBH’s “The 3 Little Pigs” and Creative Artist Agency’s Cannes Chipotle winner. Also, Del Campo Nazca Saatchi & Saatchi’s work for – of all improbable B2C clients – air-conditioning specialist BGH. Of which this, directed by Juan Cabral, is the latest instance:

As MAA’s Stephen Foster puts it – “bleakly comic”.

My favourite, though, was “Follow the Frog”, a quirky satire of the desk-bound yuppie eco-warrior fantasising about making the World A Better Place. Writer, director, copywriter, art director is Max Joseph – clearly a bit of an Orson Welles in the making. The commercial was produced by Wander Films, a creative boutique in Los Angeles. The moral? You don’t need to go to the ends of the earth to save the rainforest. Just Follow the Frog by buying kitemark-certified Rainforest Alliance products. They’ll do all the ethical heavy-lifting for you: sustain the forests, uphold socially equitable farming methods, and guarantee that what you buy is economically viable:

It’s long – but isn’t nearly everything these days? The measure of the made-for-internet film is not its length, but how well it sustains our interest. On this criterion Follow the Frog succeeds very well. It’s got a good tale to tell, is directed with panache and enlivened by bold use of graphics. Oh, and it uses gentle humour to camouflage the piety of its evangelical message. Yes “Siri”, it get’s my vote.

Agency of the Year. I won’t beat about the bush: it’s got to be Wieden & Kennedy. International networks frequently produce isolated instances of brilliance (Del Campo being an example within the Saatchi organisation). Exceptional work, simultaneously executed on a number of fronts, is another matter. To take an investment analogy, W&K is a momentum stock outperforming in all its main markets. Whether that’s Clint fronting for Chrysler at the Super Bowl:

… London winning the £110m Tesco account – but also producing some of the most interesting creative work since “Grrr”:

Or Amsterdam’s slick spoof for the latest James Bond film, which neatly segues into its current Heineken campaign:

Person of the Year. Tempting to mention the name of Joel Ewanick, isn’t it? No one can be said to have made a bigger splash in the world of marketing over the past year. Arguably, however, the now-dismissed chief marketing officer of General Motors made headlines for all the wrong reasons. A change agent he certainly was, but were any of his changes for the good? And what sort of permanence will they have? We hacks miss him, but I suspect the wider marketing community will not.

Jerry BuhlmannInstead of anti-hero, therefore, I’ve plumped for a gritty go-getter: marketing services’ answer to Daniel Craig. Like Craig, he certainly wouldn’t be everyone’s first choice as the archetypal smooth operator. But his coolness under fire cannot be doubted. Step forward Jerry Buhlmann, chief executive of Aegis Group plc. If there is one thing archetypal about Jerry, it’s that he’s a self-made media man. He started off in the “five to one” slot, in other words the lowest of the low in the full-service agency hierarchy, at Young & Rubicam in 1980. Nine years later, he was setting up his his own media-buying outfit BBJ – along with ultimately less successful Nick Brien and the downright obscure Colin Jelfs. BBJ – nowadays Vizeum – though successful (it handled for example the BMW account) was originally a “second-string” shop for conflicted WCRS media. Buhlmann’s career really took off when WCRS’s Peter Scott had the inspired idea of acquiring Carat – Europe’s largest media buyer – and floating off the combined operation as a separate stock market entity, rechristened Aegis. Buhlmann and his company were soon swallowed up by the independent media specialist, which offered him much wider career opportunities.

But was he a man capable of capitalising on them? While no one has ever doubted Buhlmann’s single-minded ambition to succeed, a lot have wondered whether he had the competence to do so. Yes, he had a mind like a calculator and razor-sharp commercial acumen, but where, oh where, were those human skills no less essential for making it to the top of the corporate pile? There was much mirth in the senior reaches of the media industry when Buhlmann got his first big break as head of Aegis Media EMEA in 2003. “It’s like William Hague trying to emulate Margaret Thatcher” was a typical response to his promotion. Then, as later, Buhlmann’s critics completely underestimated his ability to learn on the job. When he became group chief executive in 2010, the reception was scarcely less friendly. The master of ‘focus’ and ‘detail’ was incapable of taking the broader view vital to successfully running a publicly-quoted company, it was said. And then there was Jerry’s far-from-diplomatic demeanour: how long before he rubbed the City up the wrong way and had to be dispensed with?

It wasn’t as if Aegis was an easy company to run, either. As a (near) pure-bred media specialist, it was susceptible to squalls in the media every time the inevitable financial scandal broke. Inevitable, because media buying and peculation are bedfellows and peculation distorts financial performance – meaning in Aegis’ case it had to resort to highly public mea culpas every now and then. Other major media outfits, by contrast, have been able to rely on defence in depth from the much bigger marketing services organisations to which they belong.

Not only that, Aegis’s card was marked as a public company. For years, it laboured under the strain of being a takeover or break-up target. The strain became nightmarish when Vincent Bolloré, the shareholder from hell, took a strategic stake in Aegis and began engineering a series of boardroom coups.

Some of the credit for Aegis’ eventual soft-landing – a 50%-premium, £3.2bn cash deal with Dentsu, sealed last June  – must go to Aegis chairman John Napier. But that still leaves a lot owing to Buhlmann himself. Not only did he keep all the plates spinning in difficult circumstances, he also demonstrated a strategic clarity which eluded his predecessors. He ruthlessly pruned the company of its lower-margin research operation (by disposing of Synovate to Ipsos), but at the same time bolstered its pure-play media-buying profile with the geographical add-on of Mitchell Communications.

Not a bad result, all in all, for the man once dubbed the king of the second-string.

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£3bn Aegis deal will test Dentsu’s mettle

July 13, 2012

Cynics might say that £3.2bn – cash – is an awful lot to pay for digital competence and a superior market rating. And they have a point. Would Dentsu ever have planned such an audacious and costly coup as the acquisition of Aegis Group had the Japanese advertising group earlier succeeded in its seemingly knock-out offers for Razorfish and, later, AKQA? It’s subjunctive history: we’ll never know.

Aegis chief executive Jerry Buhlmann and Dentsu president Tadashi Ishii: Firm friends?

The cynics are, in any case, substantially unfair. There’s much more to the Aegis acquisition than digital. This is arguably the transformative deal of the decade. It’s as if there has been a tectonic plate shift in marketing services, revealing a series of minor preceding tremors as clearly apparent elements in a wider pattern.

These minor tremors include the foundation of a much stronger, and more independent, operating unit in the US – Dentsu North America – under the direction of Tim Andree; Andree’s earlier acquisition of some of America’s sharpest shops, McGarryBowen, Attik, and 360i; the harnessing of McGarryBowen to Dentsu’s embryonic European network, led by former WPP executive Jim Kelly; and, not least, Dentsu’ decision to pull out of its unsuccessful strategic alliance with Publicis Groupe, cashing £535m in the process.

Andree, now gone global as senior vice-president at Dentsu and no doubt a strategic architect of the acquisition, has admitted that the £535m was “helpful in this deal” – coded language referring to the cash pile making it possible at this time. But something of the sort has needed to happen for a long time if Dentsu were not to be stranded in its idiosyncratic role as a one-country wonder, with 80% of global earnings still accounted for by overwhelming dominance in the Japanese market.

There are lessons in failure, and the Japanese management of Dentsu finally seem to have learned them. Neither strategic alliances, meaning stakes of about 20% in rival but complementary marketing services companies, nor the occasional one-off acquisition, such as Collett Dickenson Pearce all those years ago, suffice  for players in a global market. They needed to delegate more, and yet be more masterful in their acquisition strategy.

The delegation came in the realisation that people like Andree, John McGarry and Kelly would know more about how Western advertising culture actually functioned than Tokyo Central would ever know.

The more masterful acquisition strategy came from the realisation that opportunities for global expansion were rapidly narrowing, and if they wanted a suitable counterweight elsewhere in the world, they would have to put aside an institutional aversion to big takeovers and get the cheque-book out.

That’s why £3.2bn to buy the Aegis Group – 18 times prospective earnings compared with a market average of about 13 – is not too much to pay for this deal. It gives Dentsu indispensable weight as a global player: at $7bn revenues combined, close competition with the Interpublic Group as the number 5 player. As a media/digital operator, it moves into the third slot, behind GroupM (WPP) and Vivaki Media (PG). And geographically, it reduces its dependence on Japan to 60%.

Over at Aegis, it’s difficult to guess whose smile is broader: that of Vincent Bolloré, 26% shareholder; Harold Mitchell, who doubles his invested capital from the sale of his business two years ago with a £112m takeaway; or Aegis chairman John Napier. Napier has had to perform a very difficult tightrope trick in the City with a monkey on his back. The monkey is Bolloré.

On the one hand, Aegis has performed extremely well in recent years, with organic growth rates defying all its bigger rivals. A cleaning-up operation, which brought Mitchell’s Australian media buying services in and off-loaded the under-performing Synovate market research business on Ipsos, improved them still further.

On the other, there was always an air of impermanence about a company as small and narrowly defined as Aegis being on the public markets. Chief executive Jerry Buhlmann knew it, Mitchell – judging from his share investment strategy –  knew it, Napier knew it and – most importantly – Vincent Bolloré knew it. Which is why he built up a stake in the first place. From the angle of Aegis’ corporate independence it is difficult to know which was worse: Bolloré Mark 1, the corporate raider stealthily engineering a boardroom takeover with a view to break-up; or Bolloré Mark 2, the disillusioned ‘strategic investor’ seeking to offload his game-changing stake at the first reasonable opportunity. Each was destabilising; neither the stuff of a good corporate narrative to wow other investors. Bolloré is now laughing all the way to his bank – £725m in pocket, representing a 50% premium on his investment. Quite what this means for the future of Havas, trailing with only $2.3bn global revenues, is of course an interesting  – but quite separate – question.

The nature of the Aegis deal – cash, and a 50% premium to the share price – makes it exceedingly unlikely that Dentsu will face any challengers for its prize. What matters now is whether it will make the deal work. The enlarged Dentsu can boast that 37% of its revenues are derived from the cutting edge, digital – a greater share than any other global marketing services group. Buhlmann has agreed to stay on until at least the end of next year, which should help the glue to set. But what then? Aegis, at nearly 40% the size of its new parent company, is by a wide margin the biggest acquisition that Dentsu is ever likely to make. That’s quite a cultural challenge.


Is Bolloré limbering up for a new tilt at Aegis?

September 28, 2010

Wouldn’t it be a shock if Vincent Bolloré, corporate raider, chairman of Havas and long-time would-be nemesis of Aegis, were finally to deliver his knock-out blow just when the media buying, digital and research group was least expecting it?

But he’d never do that would he, not now? Most informed commentators believe he missed his golden opportunity 18 months ago when Aegis had lost a third of its market value and was lurching rudderless after the incoming chairman, John Napier, fired group chief executive Robert Lerwill. Things are very different now, with Jerry Buhlman installed as ceo and actively engaged in an aggressive acquisitions policy that has successfully targeted Australian media buyer Mitchell Communications. The share price – an anaemic 75p 18 months ago – has now regained a lot of its former lustre, hovering around 123p.

So Bolloré, who owns 29.9% of Aegis, yet has failed five times to get two of his own directors on the board, would be mad to strike now – wouldn’t he? That’s certainly the impression he’s been cultivating with carefully placed interviews in France’s leading daily Le Figaro and the Financial Times. In the latter, the chairman and 33% owner of Havas tells us that the global advertising and media buying network is now poised to make a series of acquisitions but, he cautions: “It doesn’t mean we want to make one big shot but some different acquisitions in different countries.”

Really? What commentators seem to forget is that Havas itself was in no fit state to exploit Aegis’ weakness 18 months ago. It’s far better primed now, with up to €2bn (£1.7bn) in cash and loans available to it, and a much fitter share price to boot. Bolloré has close connections with Italy’s biggest publicly traded investment bank Mediobanca, of which he is a 5% shareholder.

Aegis is capitalised at about £1.47bn. A bid mixing Havas shares with substantial cash to sweeten Aegis’ extraordinarily loyal shareholders would be the way ahead.

Let’s see whether  – in the coming months – Bolloré has the courage to take it.


Obama, BP and the day the British mouse roared

June 11, 2010

Barack Obama must have been stunned when he heard the news. This time he’d gone too far with anti-British, anti-BP rhetoric and he was going to receive the just penalty for his temerity. Yes siree, the full nine yards: an open letter of complaint from John Napier.

John Who? you – like Obama – must be wondering. Come on, you know. Yes you do. The bloke who’s been running media specialist Aegis plc since Colin Sharman left. No, really running it. He isn’t just chairman, he got rid of the former chief executive and did his job for a while too. Which was, you ask? Getting that pesky shareholder Vincent Bolloré to frog off, of course. John, in his spare time, also chairs insurance company RSA, and was once managing director of research outfit AGB.

I’m glad we’ve cleared that one up. So what does he actually say in this letter? Well, all sorts of nasty things about the US president. For instance? He’s not very statesmanlike, he can’t take the heat under pressure, and he’s been lashing out at poor old BP ceo Tony Hayward in a “prejudicial and personal way.” That sort of thing.

I see. It’s like Squibb Minor berating the headmaster for unprofessional conduct – only to find his outburst lands the whole class in prolonged detention of the most humiliating “ass-kicking” kind. More or less.

Mind you, Napier – like Robert Peston in his blog today – does turn a neat trick in comparing and contrasting Obama’s treatment of BP with Obama’s treatment of the banks. In the letter he says: “There is a sense here that these attacks are being made because BP is British. If you compare the damage inflicted on the economies of the western world by polluted securities from the irresponsible, unchecked greed and avarice of leading USA international banks, there has not been the same personalised response in or from countries beyond the US. Perhaps a case of double standards?”

Mr Napier does not, of course, have an election to win in November. Where I suspect he, or rather RSA – the company he represents – is coming from is as a severely damaged investor in BP. Since the Deepwater explosion in April, BP has lost nearly 45% – or £55bn – of its value.

ELSEWHERE BP’s crisis management has descended to new levels of farce, this time over the oil company’s handling of Twitter. A rather annoying critic, Leroy Stick (believe that if you like), has been taunting BP from the fastness of @BPGlobalPR and the company has unsuccessfully tried to muzzle him. This week, Stick was forced to change his ‘bio’, which formerly read “This page exists to get BP’s message and mission statement into the Twitterverse.” Irritatingly for the company, it now reads: “We are not associated with Beyond Petroleum, the company that has been destroying the Gulf of Mexico for 50 days.” BP denies it has pressured Twitter into closing the site, and says it merely asked for the so-called ‘parody feed’ to clarify its status. Stick claims this is the last concession he will make: BP will have to close him down. More in Ad Age. Stay logged.


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